Transportation and Material Moving · United States (national)
Sailors and Marine Oilers
How exposed this work is to automation, shown as ranges with the reasoning and sources.
The short version: this role is highly exposed to automation, and meaningful change looks likely over the next 5 to 10 years.
It is a sourced range, not a verdict, and the detail is below.
Built on O*NET tasks, BLS pay and projections, and peer-reviewed AI-exposure research. Sources shown.
Data snapshot SNAPSHOT-2026-11-06. How it works
AI / softwarerange 0.0 to 13.1
Physical / roboticsrange 54.5 to 78.5
When the change is likely
Partial, 5 to 10 yearslocal demand growing
What to do about it
Use AI to outpace AI.
Strategies to protect your livelihood, most important first.
1
Use your 5 to 10 year runway
Change here is gradual. Build resilient skills steadily and watch the signals rather than waiting for a shock.
2
Move up from the task to the system
Robotics targets the physical work. Shift toward supervising, maintaining, or programming the automation instead of competing with it.
3
Pivot toward Motorboat Operators
It is skill-adjacent and less exposed (40.9 vs 66). A lateral move now beats a forced one later.
4
Build a financial buffer
Keep 6 to 12 months of expenses and diversify your income, so a disruption is a setback rather than a catastrophe.
5
Add a recognised credential
A certification or license raises the bar against automation and signals value in a tightening market.
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Which of my tasks are exposed
Tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically during voyages and disconnecting them when destinations are reached.
66.5
Attach hoses and operate pumps to transfer substances to and from liquid cargo tanks.
66.5
Handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to other vessels, or to rig towing lines.
66.5
Read pressure and temperature gauges or displays and record data in engineering logs.
66.5
Stand watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids, such as buoys or lighthouses.
66.5
Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.
66.5
Examine machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows.
100.0
Maintain a ship's engines under the direction of the ship's engineering officers.
100.0
Longer, orange bars are more automatable; short green bars are resistant.
What is driving my result
lowers risk
raises risk
Task: Examine machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows.
Task: Maintain a ship's engines under the direction of the ship's engineering officers.
Local demand is growing
Lower-risk adjacent roles
Motorboat Operators
40.9
Dredge Operators
49.1
Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels
51.7
Ship Engineers
55.0
A full, ranked mitigation plan is part of the paid tiers.
How this score is calculated
Map Sailors and Marine Oilers to its standard O*NET task list (8 core tasks).
Score each task for AI/software exposure (Eloundou et al. 2023) and physical/robotics exposure (an O*NET work-context proxy), each 0 to 100.
The two axis scores are the task averages: AI 1.1, robotics 66.5.
The timeline comes from the higher axis (66.5), shifted for local demand (growing), and seniority. It is read against your remaining working years.
Ranges are about ±12 points. A backtest against real BLS employment change shows the risk ranking holds in aggregate, but individual outcomes are predicted weakly, so results are ranges, never a flat verdict.
Sources: O*NET, Eloundou et al. (2023), GPTs are GPTs, O*NET Work Context, BLS CPI-U, BLS OEWS.
Snapshot SNAPSHOT-2026-11-06. Full method and backtest on How it works.